An essay on the interactions between climate and society     

Michael H  GLANTZ  Qian YE 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2008,2(3):356-363

There has been increasing concern about the lack of involvement by social scientists and humanists in a global change program, although many social scientists are already directly involved in various aspects of research on environmental change, and their research interests are clearly central to a global change research agenda. Based on a historical review, the role of social science disciplines as well as social science institutes in an emerging multidecadal global change program is discussed. Both “plan of action” and “plan of inaction” are suggested to avoid potential pitfalls due to the rush development of a social science program into the existing global climate change problem.  相似文献   

Climate changing characteristics of Zhangye City in Heihe River basin during 1968–2005     

Mingji Li  Yuxia Ma  Peiji Shi 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2008,2(2):243-248

At present, researches on climate change of the Heihe River basin mainly focus on the relationship between basin climate change and regional water resources, regional desertification and dynamic climatic seasons of sandstorm, but less on climate change of oasis region, where there are more intense and frequent human activities. Based on data of precipitation, temperature, strong wind and dust events frequencies obtained from the six meteorological stations of Zhangye region in Heihe River basin, the features of climate change during 1968–2005 were carefully studied. Results show that the regional temperature rise rate exceeded the average level of China. The annual precipitation changed a little, but the precipitation had a slowly increasing trend in spring and winter. Frequencies of strong wind and sandstorm days show obviously descending trends, which had a close correlation with the regional temperature rise and the precipitation increase in spring and winter. Meanwhile, further human economic activities and exploitations to the oasis in the inland valley of arid regions also affected the climate change of this region, which has a sensitive and fragile eco-environment. __________ Translated from Journal of Desert Research, 2007, 27(6): 1048–1054 [译自: 中国沙漠]  相似文献   

Time-dependent stress change during failure of rocks     

V.T. Belikov  A.F. Shestakov 《Russian Geology and Geophysics》2008,49(5):350-356

The energy balance of a solid subject to fracture has been explored using heat and mass transfer equations with regard to the volumetric and superficial components. In the suggested model, brittle fracture of a cracked solid considered as a heterogeneous two-phase medium is described by an equation analogous to the Griffith’s criterion for propagation of a single crack. The derived equation is used, together with estimates of relative change in specific interface area, to study the respective change of free strain energy and pressure in rocks associated with failure.  相似文献   

基于物方影像匹配的DEM聚类变化检测     

冯甜甜  王密  潘俊 《测绘信息与工程》2008,33(1):35-37

提出了DEM的变化检测问题,采用了基于密度的聚类分析方法对匹配所得的初始变化区域进行分析,实现了地表高程变化区域的检测.  相似文献   

激光雷达技术在我国地形测图中应用前景广阔     

宫鹏  ;黄华兵 《测绘软科学研究》2008,(6):45-48

激光雷达技术（Light Detection and Ranging,LiDAR）是近十年来快速发展并得到广泛应用的测量手段。美国地质调查局（USGS）、美国国家宇航局（NASA）以及美国地质学会（AASG）已经开始讨论建设全美高分辨率激光雷达数据库。我国正处于东部城市化、土地利用巨变、西部无图而经济高速发展的时期,国家、地方、企业生产单位迫切需要现实性强、精确度高、比例尺大的地形数据产品。满足这些要求的主要途径是采用激光雷达这一先进的测绘技术。我们建议国家、地方与企业统筹规划,各司其职,努力建设我国的激光雷达基础数据库。本文通过Stoker等（2008）介绍的第二届全美激光雷达战略研讨会上论述的激光雷达技术特点、激光雷达数据的科学需求与应用以及商业化运作问题,结合我国目前的激光雷达发展趋势、测绘数据需求以及土地利用变化监测等科学问题,简析激光雷达技术在我国的应用前景。  相似文献   

基于RS与GIS技术的变更图斑自动识别方法研究     

蒋洪波  陈超 《测绘科学》2008,33(3):71-73

基于RS与GIS技术的土地利用变更图斑自动识别方法,即"以遥感正射影像图为基础,以地理信息和地物反射光谱为判别依据"的变更信息识别方法,能够尽量避免传统利用遥感影像分类技术进行地物变更识别存在的不足。本文通过对距离算法的改良,有效利用遥感数据的实时性和丰富性,在地理信息系统的支持下,提高了对地物变更地块的识别精度。  相似文献   

DEM在湖泊水文变化研究中的应用进展     

罗竹  刘凯  张春亢  邓心远  马荣华  宋春桥 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(7):1510-1521

在全球变化背景下,湖泊水文的动态变化不仅是评估和预测气候与环境变化的重要指示剂,同时对社会可持续发展、水资源的开发与利用、生态文明建设等产生重要影响。湖泊水文的动态变化受到湖滨及湖底地形的控制,数字高程模型（DEM）成为湖泊水文研究的重要数据源。随着遥测技术的发展,高分辨率、区域/全球大尺度DEM数据的获取手段快速发展、数据源不断丰富,DEM对推动湖泊水文动态研究进展起到了关键作用。本文首先基于Web of Science平台对DEM在湖泊水文动态研究中的相关文献进行了分析,阐述了该主题现有研究在发文时间、发文数量增减态势、研究区域与热点地区、文献所涉及的DEM数据等方面的特点。接着,围绕着DEM在湖泊水文动态的研究中4个主要方向：湖泊水域变化、湖泊水位变化、湖泊水量变化、湖泊水文灾害情势,重点总结：DEM与其他遥感观测平台、实地观测及模型模拟等多源数据的融合策略,数字地形分析与水文学分析、遥感影像分析等方法的集成策略,以及DEM数据不确定性等对湖泊水文变化研究的影响。最后,本文论述了目前DEM在湖泊水文研究中存在的关键问题,并结合技术发展趋势和研究热点问题,提出了可能的解决路径和未来的研究前景。  相似文献   

纳入动态数据的改进FLUS模型在城市增长边界划定中的应用     

王志远  张考  丁志鹏  伍随意  黄春华 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(12):2326-2337

城市增长边界是管控城市建设用地无序扩张的有效手段,科学合理划定城市增长边界是当前研究关注的重要课题。本研究试图引入百度动态交通时间和POI数据改进FLUS模型,以长沙市中心城区为例,采用2000、2010和2018年3期土地利用数据对比验证改进FLUS模型模拟精度,并利用改进FLUS模型设置2种情景,模拟2030年长沙市中心城区土地利用变化,结合用地适宜性评价划定城市增长边界。结果显示：① 纳入动态数据的改进FLUS模型模拟2010年和2018年土地利用相比原模型KAPPA系数提高了2.90%和2.74%,总体精度提高了1.79%和1.83%,表明改进模型具有更高模拟精度;② 利用改进FLUS模型模拟的2030年长沙市中心城区土地利用变化,基准情景和生态保护情景建设用地规模分别为930.06 km²和881.36 km²,均以耕地转为建设用地比例最大;③ 长沙市中心城区刚性增长边界范围为1479.59 km²,占中心城区总面积的37.38%,边界内包含了芙蓉区、天心区、雨花区、岳麓区和开福区的大部分区域;④ 基准情景和生态保护情景下,长沙市中心城区弹性增长边界面积分别为799.35 km²和742.92 km²,建设用地扩张空间主要为长沙县和望城区,结果与2010版长沙市城市总体规划拓展方向一致。纳入动态数据的改进FLUS模型多情景模拟划定城市增长边界,能更高精度的为规划决策提供科学依据。  相似文献   

基于FLUS-UGB的县域土地利用模拟及城镇开发边界划定研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

张世伟  魏璐瑶  金星星  陆玉麒 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(9):1848-1859

当前城镇开发边界的制定与已有基本农田和生态保护红线存在较大的龃龉,在新的国土空间规划体系下,需要科学划定县域合理的城镇开发边界以实现国土空间的可持续开发利用。对此,本文提出了基于三线协调和FLUS-UGB的城镇增长边界划定方法,以江苏省丰县为研究案例,在对其2011—2017年土地利用进行模拟和验证的基础上预测了至2035年的多情景土地利用变化,结合耕地保护与生态控制背景,最终确定城镇增长边界。结果表明：① 2017年丰县土地利用模拟的总体精度达到94.7%,Kappa系数为0.895,模拟精度较高。② 基准情景下,城镇用地呈现“摊大饼”的空间扩张趋势。在耕地保护与生态控制背景下,城镇呈“放射式”向外有序扩张。③ 预测2035年丰县城镇用地开发边界面积为80.29 km²,2017—2035年共17年增长幅度达到69.07%。明确划分城镇开发边界能够有效避免城镇用地对永久基本农田和重要生态用地的侵占,从而实现城镇扩张、永久基本农田和重要生态用地保护三者之间的良好空间协调。  相似文献   

Source Evolution and Its Relationship to Climate Change Since the Middle–Late Pleistocene in Laizhou Bay,China     

GONG Chuanzhang  LI Guangxue  LIU Yong  DING Dong  XU Jishang  MA Yanyan  QIAO Lulu  and WANG Haoyin 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2020,19(1):113-123

Through the geochemical analysis of two hundred-meters cores KD4 and ZK3 from Laizhou Bay,in this study,we determined the distribution law and controlling factors of the geochemical elements.We analyzed 24 elements with respect to their R factors and major principal components,which were combined with the source discrimination functions DFCr/Th and DFCa/Al to obtain the sediment source index and its variation with depth for this area.A comparison of the changes in climate indicators suggests a clear correlation between the source and climate changes.The results show that the Yellow River and surrounding short-term rivers are the main sediment sources in this area.The PC3 of the KD4 core and PC2 of the ZK3 core(e.g.,CaO,MnO,SiO2)exhibit significant variations and reflect the relative contributions of Yellow River sources.The deposition process can be divided into six stages:in Phase I(MIS 5c–MIS 5a),the Yellow River formed,and the composition of the Yellow River had a greater influence on the sedimentary composition of the study area.In Phase II(MIS 5a–MIS 3),the sediment sources of the Yellow River and the short-term streams in this area were wavering,with the sediments derived from short-term rivers playing a more important role.In Phase III(MIS 3),with a sharp drop in temperature,the study area was in the process of retreat,and the sediment source changed from the Yellow River to short-term rivers,after which the Yellow River source material remained the main sediment source for the region.A similar process occurred three more times in Phase IV(MIS 3–MIS 2),Phase V(MIS 2–MIS 1),and Phase VI(MIS 1).With changes in climate,especially during alternating sea-land phases,the sediment source varied in marine-terrestrial-marine phases,and the changes are observed as Yellow River source-surrounding provenance-Yellow River source.However,this process of change is not synchronized with the sea-land strata alternation.  相似文献